Department of Statistics Seminar
North Carolina State University

presents

Dr. Tasha Inniss

Trinity College, Washington, DC

"Airport Capacity Probability Distribution Functions during Inclement Weather Prior to 9-11"

ABSTRACT

During instances of capacity-demand imbalances, efficient planning and decision-making in air traffic flow management is contingent upon the "goodness" of the models that estimate airport capacity over time. Airport capacities are subject to substantial uncertainty as they depend on stochastic weather conditions. In this talk, I will present statistical models that we developed using a "seasonal clustering" technique to estimate airport arrival capacity distributions, which are required inputs into a class of stochastic ground holding models that determine the optimal amount of ground delay to assign to incoming flights. A method for adjusting the amount of assigned ground delay in a dynamically changing Ground Delay Program (GDP) will be presented. Based on an algorithm that we developed to compare total weighted delay (after adjusting appropriately), it will be demonstrated that the statistical models yield less total weighted delay than did operational procedures prior to September 11, 2001.

Friday, March, 01, 2002*

3:35 - 4:35 pm

206 Cox Hall

Refreshments will be served on the second floor of Dabney Hall (left of Room 222) at 3:00 pm.
*Special additional talk: Tips for Success for Women and/or Students of Color Pursuing Advanced Degrees in Mathematics,
1:30-2:20, 212 Polk Hall .