presents
Rob Erhardt
Of Wake Forest University
Weather Derivatives and Extreme Events
Abstract
We consider pricing weather derivatives for use as protection against weather extremes. The
method described utilizes results from spatial statistics and extreme value theory to first
model extremes in the weather as a max-stable process, and then use these models to simulate
payments for a general collection of weather derivatives. As the joint likelihood function
for max-stable processes is unavailable, we fit max-stable processes using two approaches: the
first is based on the composite likelihood, and the second is based on approximate Bayesian
computing (ABC). Both capture the spatial dependence of payments. To incorporate parameter
uncertainty into the pricing model, we use bootstrapping with the composite likelihood
approach, while the ABC method naturally incorporates parameter uncertainty into the
pricing model. Using ideas from catastrophe ratemaking, we show how this method can be

Monday, 18 March
4:00pm in SAS 5270